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VI

Viatris Inc (VTRS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered total revenue of $3.76B, slightly above expectations, with adjusted EPS of $0.67 and adjusted EBITDA of $1.15B; GAAP EPS was $(0.11), driven by a fair value loss on Biocon Biologics CCPS and higher tax expense .
  • Results beat S&P Global Wall Street consensus on revenue ($3.60B*) and EPS ($0.62*), and management raised and narrowed full‑year guidance for total revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS midpoints to $14.10B, $4.10B, and $2.30, respectively .
  • Strength in Greater China (+10% YoY) and Emerging Markets (+7% YoY) offset Indore-related headwinds; brands net sales rose 3% YoY, while generics fell 5% YoY .
  • Capital return remains a catalyst: $920M YTD returned ($500M buybacks) and a declared quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share for payment on Dec 15, 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Outperformed consensus: Q3 revenue of $3.76B and adjusted EPS of $0.67 beat S&P Global Street estimates ($3.60B*, $0.62*); management highlighted “strong operational execution” and raised FY guidance midpoints .
  • Geographic/brand resilience: Greater China (+10% YoY) and Emerging Markets (+7% YoY) drove growth; brands net sales up 3% YoY with strong EpiPen, Creon, and thrombosis portfolios .
  • Pipeline/regulatory momentum: NDA submitted for the low-dose estrogen weekly patch (anticipated mid‑2026 approval); FDA approval for iron sucrose injection; acquisition of Aculys adds pitolisant and Spydia® in Japan/APAC .
  • Quote: “We anticipate being able to deliver meaningful net cost savings over a multi‑year period while also…reinvest[ing]…to fund growth opportunities” — CEO Scott Smith .

What Went Wrong

  • Indore Impact weighed on generics and margins: adjusted EBITDA down 10% YoY and adjusted gross margin fell to 56.0% from 58.5% .
  • GAAP loss: $(128)M GAAP net loss and $(0.11) EPS driven by fair value reduction of Biocon Biologics CCPS and higher tax expense .
  • JANZ down 11% YoY and Developed Markets down 2% YoY; North America generics faced competition and Indore drag, with management guiding normal seasonality to lower Q4 revenues vs Q3 .

Financial Results

Quarterly trend

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.25 $3.58 $3.76
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(2.55) $0.00 $(0.11)
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.50 $0.62 $0.67
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$0.92 $1.08 $1.15
GAAP Gross Margin (%)35.7% 37.2% 36.5%
Adjusted Gross Margin (%)55.9% 56.6% 56.0%

Q3 2025 vs prior year and estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025YoY ChangeS&P Global ConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.75 $3.76 ~0% $3.60*+$0.16B*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.08 $(0.11) NM
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.75 $0.67 (11%) $0.62*+$0.05*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.28 $1.15 (10%) $1.08*+$0.07B*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment and category breakdown (Q3 2025)

Segment / CategoryNet Sales ($USD Billions)YoY Change
Developed Markets$2.26 (2%)
Greater China$0.62 +10%
JANZ$0.31 (11%)
Emerging Markets$0.57 +7%
Brands$2.44 +3%
Generics$1.31 (5%)

Selected KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Cash from Operations ($USD Billions)$0.54 $0.22 $0.75
Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)$0.49 $0.17 $0.66
Capital Expenditures ($USD Billions)$0.04 $0.05 $0.09
Adjusted R&D as % of Revenue7% 6% 6%
Adjusted SG&A as % of Revenue24% 23% 22%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Aug 7, 2025)Current Guidance (Nov 6, 2025)Change
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)FY 2025$13.50 – $14.00; Midpoint $13.75 $13.90 – $14.30; Midpoint $14.10 Raised and narrowed
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)FY 2025$3.89 – $4.19; Midpoint $4.04 $4.00 – $4.20; Midpoint $4.10 Raised midpoint; narrowed range
Adjusted EPS ($)FY 2025$2.16 – $2.30; Midpoint $2.23 $2.25 – $2.35; Midpoint $2.30 Raised and narrowed
Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)FY 2025$1.80 – $2.20; Midpoint $2.00 $1.85 – $2.15; Midpoint $2.00 Range narrowed
GAAP Net Cash from Ops ($USD Billions)FY 2025$2.20 – $2.50; Midpoint ~$2.35 $2.20 – $2.45; Midpoint ~$2.325 Slightly narrowed
DividendCalendar Q4 2025$0.12 per share, payable Dec 15; record Nov 24 Declared dividend

Management also guided Q4 phasing: revenues lower across segments due to seasonality; gross margins stable; SG&A to increase for pipeline/launch investments; FCF to step down given interest timing and capex phasing .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Indore FDA import alert impactEstimated revenue impact: $140M (Q1) and ~$160M (Q2); generics headwinds Q3 impact ~$100M; remediation substantially complete; redundancies added; penalties not expected to recur in 2026 Improving
Capital allocationReaffirmed $500–$650M buybacks; >$450M returned YTD (Q1) and >$630M YTD (Q2) $920M returned YTD; $500M repurchases; balanced 50/50 long-term capital return vs growth assets Strengthening
Pipeline executionPositive Phase 3 readouts (meloxicam, presbyopia; contraceptive patch NDA planned H2) NDA filed for low-dose estrogen patch; iron sucrose FDA approval; Aculys acquisition (pitolisant, Spydia®); meloxicam pre‑NDA and opioid‑sparing label ambition Advancing
Strategic reviewOngoing enterprise-wide review disclosed; focus on efficiencies Expect “meaningful net cost savings” over multi‑year; quantum to be detailed Q1 2026 investor event Building
Regional trendsEurope resilient; Greater China +6–9% growth in H1 Greater China +10%; Emerging +7%; JANZ down (price/reimbursement) Mixed
Regulatory/legalGoodwill impairment ($2.9B) in Q1; fair value losses on Biocon CCPS in H1 Additional fair value loss (~$100M) in Q3 on Biocon CCPS; continued FDA engagement on Indore Stabilizing

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered another strong quarter…advancing our pipeline…preparing to take meaningful actions through our enterprise‑wide strategic review to position Viatris for sustainable growth in 2026 and beyond.” — CEO Scott Smith .
  • “We have returned more than $920 million of capital to shareholders year‑to‑date…we are raising and narrowing our financial guidance ranges…on track to deliver on all of our 2025 financial commitments.” — CFO Doretta Mistras .
  • “Initial remediation activities [at Indore] are substantially complete…we met with the FDA…built operational redundancies…to decouple revenues” — CEO Scott Smith .
  • “We anticipate being able to deliver meaningful net cost savings over a multi‑year period…reinvest a portion…to fund growth opportunities.” — CEO Scott Smith .

Q&A Highlights

  • Indore remediation and penalties: Management expects penalties (over half of ~$100M Q3 impact) not to recur next year; redundancies built with other sites/third parties while FDA reinspection timing remains at agency discretion .
  • Meloxicam label and commercialization: Designed Phase 3 with FDA to enable opioid‑sparing labeling; exploring partnerships but prepared to self‑launch; peak sales “in the right sort of range” around ~$500M subject to label .
  • Capital allocation and BD: Target balanced 50/50 over 3–5 years between shareholder returns and growth assets; leaning into buybacks in 2025; seek accretive US-based innovative assets .
  • Strategic review quantification: Quantum of savings to be disclosed in Q1 2026; majority of savings expected to drop to bottom line with minority reinvestment .
  • 2026 setup: Q4 seasonality to lower revenue vs Q3; watch competitive dynamics in North America, potential Amitiza LOE in Japan, and approvals/launch uptake .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 revenue: $3.76B vs consensus $3.60B*; beat by ~$0.16B*.
  • Q3 2025 EPS (normalized/primary): $0.67 vs consensus $0.62*; beat by ~$$0.05*.
  • EBITDA: S&P Global consensus $1.08B* vs S&P Global actual recorded $1.09B*; company‑reported adjusted EBITDA was $1.15B .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Where estimates may adjust: Given guidance midpoint raises (revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS) and stronger Greater China/Emerging performance offsetting Indore, Street models likely lift FY topline and EPS, while incorporating Q4 seasonality and higher SG&A for launch prep .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue and EPS beats paired with raised FY guidance midpoints support near‑term sentiment; expect Q4 seasonal step‑down but stable margins per management .
  • Indore headwinds are moderating and remediation is largely complete; penalties are not expected to recur in 2026, reducing a major overhang .
  • Pipeline catalysts in 2026: low‑dose estrogen patch (mid‑2026), fast‑acting meloxicam (pending NDA/label), and Japan CNS assets via Aculys—monitor labeling (opioid‑sparing) and early launch execution .
  • Geographic mix is improving: Greater China/Emerging strength offsets Developed/JANZ pressures; continued focus on complex generics and brand portfolios is a margin lever .
  • Capital return remains robust: $500M buybacks YTD and $0.12 dividend declared—management aims for long‑term balanced 50/50 capital deployment, with potential for accretive US innovative assets .
  • Strategic review could be a medium‑term re‑rating catalyst; quantification of multi‑year cost savings coming in Q1 2026 .
  • Watch Q4 phasing (revenues lower, SG&A up) and 2026 risks (North America competition, Amitiza LOE) when modeling trajectory .